Smart baseball : the story behind the old stats that are ruining the game, the new ones that are running it, and the right way to think about baseball

Cover image for Smart baseball : the story behind the old stats that are ruining the game, the new ones that are running it, and the right way to think about baseball

First Title Value for Searching:

Personal Author:

Law, Keith, 1973-

Edition:

First Edition.

Physical Description:

viii, 291 pages : illustrations, charts ; 24 cm.

General Note:

Includes an index.

Summary:

An ESPN senior baseball writer and statistical analyst looks at the numbers game of baseball, proving why some of the most trusted stats are surprisingly wrong, explaining what numbers actually work and exploring what the rise of Big Data means for the future of the sport.

Contents:

Smart baseball. Below average : the fundamental flaw of batting average ; Pitcher wins : one guy gets the credit for everyone else's work ; RBI : baseball's unreliable narrator ; Holtzman's folly : how the save rule has ruined baseball ; Stolen bases : crime only pays if you never get caught ; Fielding percentage : the absolute worst way to measure defense ; Bulfinch's baseball mythology : clutch hitters, lineup protection, and other things that don't exist -- Smart baseball. OBP is life : why on-base percentage is the measure of a hitter ; The power and the glory : slugging percentage and OPS ; wOBA/WRC : the ultimate measure of the hitter (until the next one) ; ERA and the riddle of pitching versus defense ; WPA : measuring clutch, if you must ; The black box : how baseball teams measure defense today ; No puns intended : going to WAR to value the whole player -- Smarter baseball. Applied math : looking at Hall of Fame elections using newer stats ; No trouble with the curve : how scouting works, and how the statistical revolution is changing it ; The next big thing is here, the revolution's near : MLB statcast ; The edge of tomorrow : where the future of stats might take us.

Subject Term:

Baseball -- United States -- Statistics.

Baseball

Publication Info:

New York : William Morrow, an imprint of HarperCollinsPublishers, [2017]

Subject:

Baseball -- United States -- Statistics.

Baseball

Base-ball

SAILS ISBN:

9780062490223

Available:

Library	Shelf Number	Shelf Location	Status
Searching... Attleboro Public Library	796.357 LAW	NONFICTION	Searching... Unknown
Searching... Foxboro - Boyden Library	796.357 LAW	NONFICTION	Searching... Unknown
Searching... Mansfield Public Library	796.357 L	NONFICTION	Searching... Unknown

Bound With These Titles

On Order

Summary

Predictably Irrational meets Moneyball in ESPN veteran writer and statistical analyst Keith Law's iconoclastic look at the numbers game of baseball, proving why some of the most trusted stats are surprisingly wrong, explaining what numbers actually work, and exploring what the rise of Big Data means for the future of the sport.

For decades, statistics such as batting average, saves recorded, and pitching won-lost records have been used to measure individual players' and teams' potential and success. But in the past fifteen years, a revolutionary new standard of measurement--sabermetrics--has been embraced by front offices in Major League Baseball and among fantasy baseball enthusiasts. But while sabermetrics is recognized as being smarter and more accurate, traditionalists, including journalists, fans, and managers, stubbornly believe that the "old" way--a combination of outdated numbers and "gut" instinct--is still the best way. Baseball, they argue, should be run by people, not by numbers.

In this informative and provocative book, the renowned ESPN analyst and senior baseball writer demolishes a century's worth of accepted wisdom, making the definitive case against the long-established view. Armed with concrete examples from different eras of baseball history, logic, a little math, and lively commentary, he shows how the allegiance to these numbers--dating back to the beginning of the professional game--is firmly rooted not in accuracy or success, but in baseball's irrational adherence to tradition.

While Law gores sacred cows, from clutch performers to RBIs to the infamous save rule, he also demystifies sabermetrics, explaining what these "new" numbers really are and why they're vital. He also considers the game's future, examining how teams are using Data--from PhDs to sophisticated statistical databases--to build future rosters; changes that will transform baseball and all of professional sports.

Reviews (4)

Publisher's Weekly Review

Baseball is full of truisms based on statistics, and Law sets out to debunk as many of them as he can. ESPN senior baseball writer Law brilliantly dismantles some of the game's most sacred and most misleading statistics-including pitcher wins and saves, RBIs, and stolen bases-with a style in which smart trumps snarky. In fact, his book's title is perfect. Law writes for the seasoned and savvy baseball fan, arguing that W stats such as WOBA (weighted on-base average), WRC (weighted runs created), WPA (win probability added), and WAR (wins above replacement) help teams and analysts place a more precise value on any given player's production. Law boldly second-guesses real-game decisions made by managers and makes his case with examples that range from the sport's early days through the 2016 postseason. As a new baseball season begins, Law challenges longtime fans to think differently about a game that he says has been hindered by inefficient traditions for far too long. (Apr.) © Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved.

Kirkus Review

A former Major League Baseball statistical analyst who now writes for ESPN shatters myths about how to accurately measure a baseball player's ability and then explains modern criteria that offer better results.Lawwho served as a special assistant to the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays and now is a senior baseball writer for ESPN Insider and an analyst for the network's show Baseball Tonightprovides a spirited exploration of statistics sure to start arguments among devoted baseball fans. Not all the explanations of statistical measurements, computer programming, and sophisticated technology developments are easily understandable, but the author's detailed explanations are as jargon-free as possible; readers need not comprehend everything to enjoy the book. In the chapter likely to cause the most passionate debate, Law relies on extensive statistical analysis to examine the Baseball Hall of Fame. The author names worthy players who were never voted in and calls out less-worthy players who achieved entrance. Law clearly explains the reasons for the poor decision-making by eligible voters. For position players, there is an overreliance on outmoded metrics such as batting average, runs batted in, and stolen bases as well as the lack of an effective method for measuring defensive prowess. For starting pitchers, voters focus too much on games won and earned run averages; for relief pitchers, it's games saved. For all pitchers, the author stresses the lack of criteria regarding the nature of the stadiums when they enter games and the quality of their team's defense. Law also shatters the conventional wisdom regarding "clutch hitters." Rather than leaving readers with utter negativity, the author explains persuasively how and why the new analytics are likely to improve the performances of individual players and entire teams. For baseball fans, Law offers a smooth combination of erudition and his obvious love of the sport. Copyright Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.

Booklist Review

After abysmal failure as a young fantasy-baseball enthusiast in the nineties, Law concluded that the statistics he was using to make key decisions were failing him. Turning for guidance to Bill James, Eddie Epstein, and other sabermetric mavens, Law soon realized that many traditional baseball numbers batting average and RBIs for hitters, wins and saves for pitchers, and errors and fielding percentages for fielders hide more than they reveal. No wonder those who rely on them from fantasy baseballers to Major League executives end up making foolish moves. Fortunately, such foolishness is receding into the past for those now assessing the game with powerful new statistics such as weighted runs created (wRC) for hitters, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for pitchers, and defensive runs saved (DRS) for fielders. In mercifully plain English, Law explains how the new statistical tools can answer questions that previously baffled baseball experts. A must-read for everyone who brings a curious head as well as an impassioned heart to the ballpark.--Christensen, Bryce Copyright 2017 Booklist

Library Journal Review

This book by ESPN sportswriter and analyst Law is both a primer on how sabermetrics are changing the way fans and professionals view baseball, as well as a thorough explanation of why traditional statistics are misleading or obsolete. Many fans consider sabermetrics and the rejection of traditional statistics to be blasphemous, but it cannot be denied that these new ways of measuring player performance have transformed the way the game is played. Defensive shifts and batting mechanics are just a few of the revolutionary effects. At the same time, traditional statistics such as the pitcher win and batting average ignore large aspects of the game and can misrepresent a player's impact. Law's background as an analyst gives him the knowledge and experience to put these different statistics in perspective and explain why they are more or less valuable. VERDICT If you're unsure of the way the new statistics operate, or wonder why the old approaches are being disparaged, this book is for you. Savvy baseball fans may want to look for more advanced texts.-Matt Schirano, Univ. of Bridgeport Lib., CT © Copyright 2017. Library Journals LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Media Source, Inc. No redistribution permitted.

Introduction	p. 1
Part 1 Smrt Baseball
1 Below Average: The Fundamental Flaws of Batting Average	p. 9
2 Pitcher Wins: One Guy Gets the Credit for Everyone Else's Work	p. 19
3 RBI: Baseball's Unreliable Narrator	p. 31
4 Holtzman's Folly: How the Save Rule Has Ruined Baseball	p. 43
5 Stolen Bases: Crime Only Pays If You Never Get Caught	p. 57
6 Fielding Percentage: The Absolute Worst Way to Measure Defense	p. 71
7 Bulfinch's Baseball Mythology: Clutch Hitters, Lineup Protection, and Other Things That Don't Exist	p. 85
Part 2 Smart Baseball
8 OBP Is Life: Why On-Base Percentage Is the Measure of a Hitter	p. 109
9 The Power and the Glory: Slugging Percentage and OPS	p. 121
10 WOBA/WRC: The Ultimate Measure of the Hitter (Until the Next One)	p. 133
11 ERA and the Riddle of Pitching Versus Defense	p. 139
12 WPA: Measuring Clutch, If You Must	p. 157
13 The Black Box: How Baseball Teams Measure Defense Today	p. 163
14 No Puns Intended: Going to WAR to Value the Whole Player	p. 183
Part 3 Smarter Baseball
15 Applied Math: Looking at Hall of Fame Elections Using Newer Stats	p. 207
16 No Trouble with the Curve: How Scouting Works, and How the Statistical Revolution Is Changing It	p. 231
17 The Next Big Thing Is Here, the Revolution's Near: MLB Statcast	p. 245
18 The Edge of Tomorrow: Where the Future of Stats Might Take Us	p. 261
Epilogue	p. 271
Acknowledgments	p. 277
Index	p. 279

Available:

Bound With These Titles

On Order

Summary

Summary

Reviews (4)

Publisher's Weekly Review

Kirkus Review

Booklist Review

Library Journal Review

Table of Contents